Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
